September could replace April as this year's most taxing month. Never before have so many major tax policy ideas been proposed in a single month on the presidential campaign trail. Vice President Kamala Harris capped it off with a new tax credit aimed at manufacturing and an 82-page economic campaign platform that fleshes out her positions on several major issues.

Harris previewed her newest proposal last week in Pittsburgh where she promised "tax credits for expanding good union jobs in steel and iron and manufacturing communities." 

The details behind Harris's "America Forward" tax credits are unclear. A campaign notice explains the credits "will be linked to the treatment of workers, ensuring the right to organize, and supporting investments in longstanding manufacturing, energy, and agricultural communities." Those caveats reflect the campaign's goal to appeal to industry and labor. They could also entail serious qualification complexities that need to be addressed. 

The Harris campaign says the revenue loss of her proposal is estimated at $100 billion over 10 years, which means her policy team has worked out at least some of the details behind closed doors, but it remains to be seen if we'll see more specifics ahead of the election. To offset the cost, Harris is counting on revenue from legislation implementing the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development's (OECD) Pillar Two framework. 

Harris's economic campaign platform also restates her support for her previous tax proposals:

• Raise the corporate rate to 28 percent
• Increase the tax on stock buybacks to four percent
• Raise the start-up deduction for small businesses from $5,000 to $50,000
• Increase the tax on long-term capital gains from 20 percent to 28 percent for millionaires (33 percent, adding in a proposed five percent Net Investment Income Tax)
• Provide a $25,000 credit for a first-time home purchase
• Impose a wealth tax on the assets of super-wealthy individuals
• Extend Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) tax reductions for individuals earning less than $400,000
• Expand the Low-Income Housing Tax Credit (LIHTC) and provide a credit to builders of affordable starter homes
• Provide a $6,000 credit for newborns, and expand the child tax credit (CTC) and earned income tax credit (EITC)
• Eliminate taxes on tips for service and hospitality workers

As previously discussed, former President Trump's campaign proposals include:

• Extension/permanency of the TCJA individual and estate tax reductions expiring at the end of 2025
• Further reduction in the corporate tax rate from 21 to 20 percent (or 15 percent for U.S.-made products)
• Exempt tips for service and hospitality workers, Social Security benefits, and overtime from taxation
• Eliminate the $10,000 cap on the state and local tax (SALT) deduction

It is important to keep in mind that the tax proposals from both candidates are crafted and pitched on the campaign trail to appeal to voters, not tax experts, and election results have a tendency to temper the ambitions of new presidents. A newly elected President Harris or President Trump wouldn't just need a majority in Congress to get their tax ambitions enacted. President Biden learned that in 2021, when Senators Joe Manchin (I-WV) and Kyrsten Sinema (I-AZ) broke ranks and sunk the individual tax increases included in the Build Back Better Act (BBBA). 

A comfortable, several-seat majority in the Senate and a 10- to 15-seat House majority is probably the bare minimum needed to advance a reconciliation bill that incorporates either candidate's loftiest proposals. That kind of cushion allows party leaders to roll over predictable internal opposition, be it moderate Democrats or deficit hawks in the GOP demanding spending cuts. However, few election experts expect either party to capture the House or Senate with sizable majorities.  

Even with a sweep of Congress, a new president will likely need to negotiate even within their own party to get a tax bill across the finish line. #TaxTake